Excellence through accuracy
In the renewable energy market, commercial performance starts with forecast accuracy. Estimating production as precisely as possible is the foundation on which trading positions and decisions are built.
Why forecasting matters for renewables
For participants in the renewable energy market, production forecast accuracy is an essential competitive advantage. Because wind and photovoltaic production depends directly on weather conditions, accurately estimating the energy available for delivery is the basis for trading decisions.
The quality of forecasts ensures alignment between contracted volumes and actual production, reducing exposure to imbalances and the associated costs. In this context, production forecasting goes beyond a technical component and becomes a strategic element that supports energy valorisation, risk management and commercial performance optimisation.
Wind vs solar: different models
Although both depend on weather conditions, wind and photovoltaic production respond to distinct physical mechanisms. For this reason, forecast performance depends on dedicated models that can capture the specifics of each source and provide relevant estimates for the trading process.
Refining accuracy with historical data
A forecast is not a static result, but a process in continuous evolution. As historical data and operational information accumulate, estimate accuracy can be improved through continuous calibration of the models used and of actual production.
From forecast to trade
The more accurately production is anticipated, the smaller the differences between the energy traded and the energy actually delivered. Forecasts directly influence decisions made on the day-ahead market and the intraday market, providing the basis for efficient market positioning. In this sense, forecasting is the bridge between the operational performance of renewable assets and the commercial result achieved.